[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 12 09:32:16 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the past 24 hours. A C2.6 
X-ray flare was observed at 1047UT with an associated type II 
radio burst with estimated shock speed of 977 km/s. This has 
been identified to have originated from region 1249(S18W04). 
A CME was observed in association with this event with the STEREO 
spacecraft, with an estimated Earthward component velocity of 
around 700 km/s. Imagery from the LASCO instrument on SOHO is 
unavailable at time of writing, making it difficult to determine 
the extent to which this CME is Earth directed. However, given 
the location of the originating region, there is likely to be 
a significant component of the ejected plasma directed towards 
the Earth. Arrival is expected on the 13th of June. Region 1247 
retains the potential to produce C class flares with a small 
chance of M class flares over the next few days. The solar wind 
speed as measured by the ACE satellite ranged around 500 km/s 
until around 17UT when the speed increased to 700 km/s likely 
due to an additional coronal hole high speed stream. A weak shock 
was observed at 0827UT, most likely due to the arrival of the 
CME observed on the 9th. The IMF Bz component ranged between 
+/- 5nT prior to the shock after which several larger southward 
excursions of around -8nT occured. Towards the end of the day 
the field settled back to the +/- 5nT fluctuation level. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the next 
3 days under the influence of coronal hole high speed streams 
and the expected CME impact from the flare mentioned above on 
the 13th. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   11443222
      Darwin              13   11443232
      Townsville          12   11443222
      Learmonth           13   21443232
      Canberra            10   11343222
      Hobart              13   21353222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3431 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak sudden impulse was observed at 0852UT after which 
Active activity levels were observed for the next 2-3 hours across 
most lattitudes, with Minor Storm levels seen from Hobart south 
to Antarctica. After this brief period of activity, conditions 
returned to Quiet with some Unsettled periods for the remainder 
of the day, except for polar regions which continued to experience 
isolated Minor Storms. Acitivty is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled 
under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream for the 
next few days. Active levels with possible isolated Minor Storms 
are expected to occur on the 13th due to the expected arrival 
of a CME. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jul    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 25%,
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20%. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by up to 30%. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
13 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
14 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed periods of up to 30% continue to be experienced 
across the Australian region. The overall trend continues to 
be a gradual increase in MUF. Some disturbed ionospheric conditions 
may occur on the 13th due to a CME impact. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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