[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 11 09:39:06 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: Solar acitivty was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
A CME was observed on the northen pole early in the day, however 
STEREO spacecraft imagery indicates this is a backside event. 
Region 1247(S18W15) has grown in size and complexity and new 
region 1250(S25E48) emerged and rapidly grew during the period. 
Significant flare activity is not expected in the next few days 
from either region, overall solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed as measured 
by the ACE satellite ranged between 440-540 Km/s. The IMF Bz 
component ranged between +/- 5nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated around 500 km/s with fluctuations for the 
next 3 days due to the influence of high speed wind streams from 
several small equatorial coronal holes. A CME is expected to 
impact the Earth on the 12th. The wind speed from this relatively 
slow CME is not expected to significantly exceed the already 
elevated levels, however some Bz southward excursions may occur. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211211
      Darwin               6   23211212
      Townsville           6   23212211
      Learmonth            6   22221212
      Canberra             4   12211211
      Hobart               5   22211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            50   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3412 1324     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
13 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian 
region over the previous day. Some Active periods occured in 
the Antarctic region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days due to persistant high speed 
wind streams originating from several small equatorial coronal 
holes. Active conditions over the Australian region and Minor 
Storm levels in polar regions may occur on the 12th due to the 
expected arrival of the CME observed early on the 9th. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25% 
12 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
13 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 
                at times. 
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging up to 20% observed during local 
day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Depressed 
MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions. MUFs are expected to improve slightly 
over the next few days, however depressions are expected to continue. 
Some disturbed ionospheric conditions on the 12th may occur due 
to possible Active geomagnetic conditions resulting from a CME 
impact. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    91000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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