[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:40:33 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Regions 
1247(S18E02) and 1243(N15W82) produced B4 flares at 0028UT and 
0925UT, respectively. The first of these was associated with 
a lifting filament and a CME having an earth-directed component. 
The solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~450km/s. 
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-10nT until around 11UT day, and 
since then between +/-8nT. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of C-class flares. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for most 
of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects. The CME mentioned 
above is expected to arrive during 11Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23122312
      Darwin               8   23222312
      Townsville           8   23122312
      Learmonth            8   23122312
      Canberra             6   23022211
      Hobart               6   23122211    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2132 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul    12    Unsettled
12 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed over the last 24 hours with some Storm periods for high 
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected on 10Jul 
and 12Jul due to coronal hole influence. An earth-directed CME 
component expected during 11Jul is likely to result in Unsettled 
conditions, with some Active periods at mid latitudes and Storm 
periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
11 Jul      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Poor-fair
12 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Jul    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
09-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  Near predicted monthly values during local day,
  Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
  Depressed by 25% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Depressed by 15% during local day,
  Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
11 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
12 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions 
from 15%-25% for the local region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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