[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:40:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 86/29 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Regions
1247(S18E02) and 1243(N15W82) produced B4 flares at 0028UT and
0925UT, respectively. The first of these was associated with
a lifting filament and a CME having an earth-directed component.
The solar wind speed increased gradually from ~350km/s to ~450km/s.
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-10nT until around 11UT day, and
since then between +/-8nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of C-class flares.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for most
of the forecast period due to coronal hole effects. The CME mentioned
above is expected to arrive during 11Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 23122312
Darwin 8 23222312
Townsville 8 23122312
Learmonth 8 23122312
Canberra 6 23022211
Hobart 6 23122211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2132 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 12 Unsettled
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours with some Storm periods for high
latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected on 10Jul
and 12Jul due to coronal hole influence. An earth-directed CME
component expected during 11Jul is likely to result in Unsettled
conditions, with some Active periods at mid latitudes and Storm
periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
11 Jul Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
12 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
09-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
11 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
12 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions
from 15%-25% for the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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