[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:41:16 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Jul             10 Jul             11 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. New region 
1247(S19E14) produced four C-class flares, the largest being 
a C3.1 at 1331UT. The solar wind speed varied between 330-370km/s. 
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT for most of the UT day, and 
between +/-8nT since 20UT. Solar activity is expected to remain 
Low over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be elevated from mid 09Jul due to the effects of coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01210111
      Darwin               4   122111--
      Townsville           3   01211211
      Learmonth            3   11110221
      Canberra             1   00110111
      Hobart               2   012200--    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3212 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours with some Minor Storm periods for high latitudes. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
due to the influence of coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Poor-fair
10 Jul      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Poor-fair
11 Jul      Poor-fair      Fair-normal    Poor-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Jul    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
08-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 35% during local night.
  Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
10 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
11 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions 
from 15%-25% for the local region.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    38900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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