[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:34:09 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1243(N16W56) produced a C1 flare at 0243UT and several
B-class flares. Region 1244(now over the W limb) and new region
1245(N17E63) also produced B-class flares. The solar wind speed
varied between 350-390km/s. The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT
and has remained southward since 18UT. Solar activity is expected
to remain Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of C-class
flares. The solar wind speed is expected to increase late on
08Jul and remain elevated for the forecast period, due to the
effects of coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 21121121
Darwin 8 21341121
Townsville 4 11121122
Learmonth 5 21121122
Canberra 3 11120121
Hobart 4 21121121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2331 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over
the last 24 hours with some Unsettled periods in mid latitudes
and Minor Storm periods for high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, due to the influence
of coronal holes from late on 08Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Poor-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Poor-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
09 Jul Poor-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
10 Jul Poor-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
07-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
09 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
10 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Strong enhancement for Cocos Island during local day. Depressed
MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions
from 15%-25% for the local region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 67200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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