[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:34:09 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active 
region 1243(N16W56) produced a C1 flare at 0243UT and several 
B-class flares. Region 1244(now over the W limb) and new region 
1245(N17E63) also produced B-class flares. The solar wind speed 
varied between 350-390km/s. The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT 
and has remained southward since 18UT. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of C-class 
flares. The solar wind speed is expected to increase late on 
08Jul and remain elevated for the forecast period, due to the 
effects of coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121121
      Darwin               8   21341121
      Townsville           4   11121122
      Learmonth            5   21121122
      Canberra             3   11120121
      Hobart               4   21121121    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2331 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours with some Unsettled periods in mid latitudes 
and Minor Storm periods for high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days, due to the influence 
of coronal holes from late on 08Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Poor-fair      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Poor-fair      Normal-fair    Poor-fair
09 Jul      Poor-fair      Normal-fair    Poor-fair
10 Jul      Poor-fair      Normal-fair    Poor-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Jul    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
07-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  No data available during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
  Depressed by 15% during local day,
  Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
09 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
10 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Strong enhancement for Cocos Island during local day. Depressed 
MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with periods of MUF depressions 
from 15%-25% for the local region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 382 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    67200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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