[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 7 09:27:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jul             08 Jul             09 Jul
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              84/26

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
A CME observed in the NW quadrant at ~1050UT is not expected 
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed varied between 350-420km/s. 
The IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low over the next 3 days, with the chance of isolated 
C-class flares. The solar wind speed is expected to increase 
during 08Jul and remain elevated for 1-2 days, due to the effects 
of a northern hemisphere coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221112
      Darwin               4   1--11212
      Townsville           6   13221112
      Learmonth            5   12220212
      Canberra             2   02210101
      Hobart               4   12221111    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   3521 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jul     5    Quiet
08 Jul    12    Unsettled
09 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours with some Active and Minor Storm periods for 
high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 07Jul. 
Unsettled conditions are expected on 08Jul, with some Active 
periods, due to the influence of the northern hemisphere coronal 
hole, abating somewhat on 09Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
09 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jul    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
06-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  Enhanced by 15% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 35% during local night.
  Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
08 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
09 Jul    32    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Strong enhancement for Cocos Island during local day. Depressed 
MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ regions and 
poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging from being depressed 
by 10%-20% to depressed by 15%-25% for the local region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    81200 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list