[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 6 09:30:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 83/24 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Regions 1242 and 1243 were the source of minor B-class flares.
Solar wind speed ranged between 370km/s to 420km/s while IMF
Bz ranged between -7nT to +5nT over the UT day with a sustained
southward period since 14UT. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance of isolated C-class
events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 13211021
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 4 13211020
Learmonth 6 22221032
Canberra 4 13110021
Hobart 4 13210021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1221 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jul 5 Quiet
08 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were
observed over the last 24 hours with some Active and Storm periods
for high latitudes. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected for 06Jul and mostly Quiet conditions on 07Jul. Unsettled
conditions are expected on 08Jul, with some Active periods, due
to the influence of the northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
07 Jul Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
08 Jul Fair-normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jul 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
05-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions.
Depressed MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging
from being depressed by 10%-20% to depressed by 15%-25% for the
local region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 64100 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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