[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 6 09:30:07 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              83/24              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Regions 1242 and 1243 were the source of minor B-class flares. 
Solar wind speed ranged between 370km/s to 420km/s while IMF 
Bz ranged between -7nT to +5nT over the UT day with a sustained 
southward period since 14UT. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance of isolated C-class 
events. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   13211021
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           4   13211020
      Learmonth            6   22221032
      Canberra             4   13110021
      Hobart               4   13210021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1221 2344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jul     5    Quiet 
08 Jul    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed over the last 24 hours with some Active and Storm periods 
for high latitudes. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are 
expected for 06Jul and mostly Quiet conditions on 07Jul. Unsettled 
conditions are expected on 08Jul, with some Active periods, due 
to the influence of the northern hemisphere coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Poor-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jul    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
05-Jul
Cocos Island Region:
  Near predicted monthly values during local day,
  Depressed by 35% during local night.
  Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
  Near predicted monthly values during local day,
  Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
  Depressed by 15% during local day,
  Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
  Depressed by 20% during local day,
  Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
  Depressed by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25% 

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Depressed MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar 
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging 
from being depressed by 10%-20% to depressed by 15%-25% for the 
local region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jul
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    64100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list