[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:33:54 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              80/20

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1242 was the source of minor B-class flares. Solar wind 
speed ranged between 360km/s to 440km/s while IMF Bz ranged between 
-10nT to +7nT over the UT day with a sustained southward period 
since 11UT. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the 
next 3 days with the chance of isolated C-class events. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11112233
      Darwin               7   21211233
      Townsville           7   21112233
      Learmonth           11   11122344
      Canberra             6   01112233
      Hobart               9   11122243
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3311 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    12    Unsettled 
06 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Jul     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed over the last 24 hours with Active periods for mid latitudes 
and Storm periods for high latitudes from 18UT. Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions are expected for 05-06Jul, with some 
Active periods on 05Jul. Quiet conditions are expected on 07Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
06 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
07 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25% 
06 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-35% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Depressed MUFs during local day and night for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar 
HF conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging 
from being depressed by 15%-25% to depressed by 10%-20% for the 
local region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    89700 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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