[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 4 09:40:54 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1244 was the source of a B9.5 class flare at 0024UT and an associated 
type II radio sweep was observed with this event. LASCO imagery 
suggests a possible glancing blow from the resulting CME. Region 
1244 was also the source of a C2.1 class event at 1101UT and 
other minor B-class events. Solar wind speed ranged between 380km/s 
to 420km/s while IMF Bz ranged between +/-7nT over the UT day 
with a sustained southward period between 00UT-02UT. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with the chance 
of further C-class events. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22110000
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Townsville           3   22110011
      Learmonth            2   22110000
      Canberra             1   22000000
      Hobart               2   22101000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   0001 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     6    Quiet 
05 Jul     5    Quiet 
06 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with Unsettled to Active periods for high latitudes 
between 00UT-09UT. Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jul    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
05 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
06 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during 
local day and night for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. 
Depressed MUFs during local day for Southwern AUS/NZ regions 
and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. Similar HF 
conditions expected for the next 3 days with MUFs ranging from 
being depressed by 10%-20% to near predicted monthly values for 
the local region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    86600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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