[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:49:19 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    86/29              86/29              86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity. Solar wind speed ranged between 
380km/s to 420km/s while IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT over the 
UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 
3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01100122
      Darwin               3   11110121
      Townsville           3   11101112
      Learmonth            2   00100122
      Canberra             1   01000021
      Hobart               2   00000122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             13   3432 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jul     6    Quiet 
05 Jul     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with Unsettled to Active periods for high latitudes. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jul. Quiet conditions 
are expected for 04Jul-05Jul as the current mild coronal hole 
solar wind stream subsides. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair          
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jul    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul    30    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
05 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUF depressions ranging from 15%-30% observed during 
local day and night across the entire Australian/NZ region during 
the last 24 hours. Continued MUF depressions of 10%-30% expected 
for the next 24 hours at low to mid latidues and disturbed 
ionospheric conditions for high latitudes due to recent geomagnetic
activity. Slight improvement in ionospheric support expected for
04Jul-05Jul with variable HF conditions ranging from MUF depressions
of 10%-20% and near predicted monthly values for for the local region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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