[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:50:39 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity. Regions 1243(N17E22) and newly 
emerged region 1244(N16W10) were the source of numerous B-class 
events. Solar wind speed increased from 320km/s at 00UT to a 
max of 450km/s at 08UT and is 400km/s at the time of this report. 
This increase in solar wind is attributed to a mid to high latitude 
positioned coronal hole in the northern hemisphere of the sun. 
Solar wind speed is expected to decline in the next 24-36 hours. 
IMF Bz underwent sustained southward excursions ranging from 
-5nT to -10nT between 00UT-15UT before falling in magnitude to 
fluctuate between +/-2nT at the time of this report. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22332311
      Darwin               9   22322322
      Townsville           8   22322311
      Learmonth           10   22333321
      Canberra             7   12332210
      Hobart               9   12333310
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2210 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul    12    Unsettled 
03 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over 
the last 24 hours with Active periods for high latitudes. Unsettled 
conditions with isolated Active periods for high latitudes are 
expected for 02Jul due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions expected 03Jul and mostly Quiet conditions for 04Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-normal   
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal   
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jul    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  56

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
04 Jul    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUF depressions of approx 20% observed during local 
day for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions during the last 24 
hours. MUFs near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. MUF
depressions of 10%-20% possible for mid to low latitudes during
local day and night for the next 2 days due to elevated
geomagnetic activity. Near predicited monthly MUF values
expected for 04Jul. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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