[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 1 09:50:43 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
no significant flare activity. Regions 1242(N17W29) and 1243(N16E37)
were quiet and stable. Solar wind speed ranged from 320km/s-360km/s
over the UT day. IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT with notable southward
excursions from 15UT up until the time of this report. This same
time period the solar wind parameters displayed a notable rise
in density and a gradual decline in velocity. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 12100021
Darwin 3 12100022
Townsville 2 11100021
Learmonth 3 12110021
Canberra 2 01100021
Hobart 1 02000020
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jul 14 Unsettled to Active
03 Jul 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with an isolated Unsettled period between 18UT-21UT
for high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 01Jul with the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream in the next 24 hours. Unsettled
conditions expected for 02Jul with isolated Active periods for
high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 53
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
03 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUF depressions of approx 20% observed during local
day and night across Equatorial and Northern AUS regions during
the last 24 hours. MUF depressions of 20% during local day for
Southern AUS/NZ regions and weak ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions. Similar MUF depressions are expected for the next 3
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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