[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 1 09:50:43 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    87/30              87/30              87/30
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity. Regions 1242(N17W29) and 1243(N16E37) 
were quiet and stable. Solar wind speed ranged from 320km/s-360km/s 
over the UT day. IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT with notable southward 
excursions from 15UT up until the time of this report. This same 
time period the solar wind parameters displayed a notable rise 
in density and a gradual decline in velocity. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12100021
      Darwin               3   12100022
      Townsville           2   11100021
      Learmonth            3   12110021
      Canberra             2   01100021
      Hobart               1   02000020
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
03 Jul     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours with an isolated Unsettled period between 18UT-21UT 
for high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for 01Jul with the expected arrival of a recurrent coronal hole 
high speed solar wind stream in the next 24 hours. Unsettled 
conditions expected for 02Jul with isolated Active periods for 
high latitudes. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 03Jul. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  53

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
03 Jul    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: MUF depressions of approx 20% observed during local 
day and night across Equatorial and Northern AUS regions during 
the last 24 hours. MUF depressions of 20% during local day for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions and weak ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions. Similar MUF depressions are expected for the next 3 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    30600 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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