[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 24 10:29:15 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Region 1149 (N17W32) produced a number of sub-flares while
region 1147 (N24W36) was quiet. C-class flares are possible from
this active area. LASCO images show a CME from the north-west at
0125 UT. This CME is not likely to be geo-effective as was seen on
STEREO A images as a halo event. ACE data show the solar wind
parameters being undisturbed over the period. Solar wind parameters
may be slightly disturbed days one and two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 5 22112112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 4 21111211
Canberra 1 11011100
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 3 44412111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1110 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
25 Jan 6 Quiet to unsettled
26 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible days one and two at
higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
25 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
26 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jan 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
01-02, and 15-22 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
00-07, 10-13 UT and to 35% 20-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
01-02, 10-15 and 17-21 UT. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
00-08 UT at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Perth.
Depressions to 20% 12-17 and 20-21 UT at Norfolk Is.,
Perth and 23 UT at Brisbane. No Hobart data.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
19-22 UT at Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
25 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
26 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January
and is current for interval 22-24 January. Occasional seasonal
sporadic E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 65700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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