[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 24 10:29:15 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Region 1149 (N17W32) produced a number of sub-flares while
region 1147 (N24W36) was quiet. C-class flares are possible from
this active area. LASCO images show a CME from the north-west at
0125 UT. This CME is not likely to be geo-effective as was seen on
STEREO A images as a halo event. ACE data show the solar wind
parameters being undisturbed over the period. Solar wind parameters
may be slightly disturbed days one and two. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21112111
      Darwin               5   22112112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            4   21111211
      Canberra             1   11011100
      Hobart               -   --------
      Casey(Ant)           3   44412111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1110 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     6    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Jan     6    Quiet to unsettled 
26 Jan     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible days one and two at 
higher latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal        
25 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
26 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Jan     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
      01-02, and 15-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-07, 10-13 UT and to 35% 20-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      01-02, 10-15 and 17-21 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      00-08 UT at Brisbane, Norfolk Is. and Perth.
      Depressions to 20% 12-17 and 20-21 UT at Norfolk Is.,
      Perth and 23 UT at Brisbane. No Hobart data.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      19-22 UT at Mawson.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
25 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
26 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for interval 22-24 January. Occasional seasonal 
sporadic E may degrade communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    65700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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