[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 25 10:41:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 24 January. Region 1149
(N16W45) produced a C-class flare at 0615UT. More C-class
flares with some possibility of isolated M-class activity
may be possible over the next 3 days. Solar wind speed varied
between 340 and 400 km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied
in the range of +/-5 nT during most parts of the UT day today.
Very low to low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Mostly quiet with
isolated unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 12222221
Canberra 4 01321210
Hobart - --------
Casey(Ant) 8 3--31122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jan 4 Quiet
26 Jan 4 Quiet
27 Jan 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at
quiet levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed on
most locations on 24 January. Nearly similar HF conditions may
be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
26 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
27 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions were observed in
the Aus/NZ regions on 24 January. Nearly similar conditions may
be expected in this region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 42500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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