[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 23 10:30:21 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  88/32

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Region 1149 (N17W19) produced a C2.4 flare at 0828 UT 
and a number of sub-flares while region 1147 (N24W22) was quiet. 
Further C-class flares are possible from 1149. The Earth directed 
CME of the 21 may impact around 28th Jan. STEREO images show 
another CME, Earth directed, around 0700 UT. The ACE data show 
that the expected disturbance did not occur, with the north-south 
IMF ranging between +4/-4 nT and the solar wind ranging from 
370 to 420 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to become 
slightly disturbed on day three due to CME effects. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212211
      Darwin               6   22212212
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            5   22112212
      Canberra             2   11101110
      Hobart               3   11202210
      Casey(Ant)           7   34312121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     5    Quiet 
24 Jan     5    Quiet 
25 Jan     6    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: The expected effects of a coronal hole did not occur. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Poor-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
24 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
25 Jan      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jan     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      10-18 UT and to 40% 19-22 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressions 20-40% 00-04 UT. No data 05-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      00-01, 08-10, 14-15, 18-21 UT. No data from
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      01-05, 09-19 UT at Brisbane, 01-05, 08, 11-16 UT at
      Norfolk Is. and 21 UT at Perth. Depressions to 20%
      04-12, 13-16 UT at Canberra, 04-05, 10-16 UT at Sydney,
      and 05-08, 13-15 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
24 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 
25 Jan    15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed. 

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 21 January 
and is current for interval 22-24 January. Occasional seasonal 
sporadic E may degrade communications at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    0.3 p/cc  Temp:    65000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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