[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 January 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 13 10:51:04 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JANUARY - 15 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jan:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jan             14 Jan             15 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Regions 1146 and 1140 are the only two notable regions on disc 
and remain unchanged. Region 1140 was the source of a B1.6 flare 
at 2141UT. Solar wind speed ranged between 460km/s-520km/s over 
the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase on 14Jan 
as an equatorial positioned coronal hole moves into geoeffective 
position. IMF Bz ranged between +/-5nT in the first half of the 
UT day and +/-3nT in the second half. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low over the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             6   12222122
      Hobart               6   22221122
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---32222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1200 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jan     5    Quiet 
14 Jan    11    Unsettled 
15 Jan    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region 
during the last 24 hours with an isolated Active period for Antarctic 
regions between 03-09UT as Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT. Solar wind
speed remained slightly elevated over the UT day at ~500km/s and is 
not expected to increase until 14Jan with the arrival of a high speed 
solar wind stream from a equatorial positioned geoeffective coronal hole.
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 13Jan with Unsettled conditions
on 14Jan-15Jan and possible Active periods for mid to high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
15 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jan    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
15 Jan     5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions during local day and night. Depressed MUFs of 15% during 
local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. Notable sproadic E observed for 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS IPS stations between 10UT-20UT. 
Similar MUFs depressions of ~20% are expected for the next 3 
days for low to mid latitudes and disturbed conditions possible 
for high latitudes begining on 14Jan due to an anticipated increase 
in geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jan
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    87900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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