[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 11

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 12 10:55:20 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1140 was the source of a B3.1 flare at 1750UT No significant 
change in sunspot area for the current regions on disc over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed ranged between 510km/s-450km/s 
over the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected to increase on 
14Jan as a equatorial positioned coronal hole moves into geoeffective 
position. IMF Bz ranged between +4nT and -3nT with notable southward 
periods in the latter half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected 
to be Very Low over the next 3 days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222322
      Darwin               7   22212322
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Canberra             4   01112221
      Hobart               7   12212322
      Casey(Ant)          12   3--32233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3111 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     6    Quiet 
13 Jan     5    Quiet 
14 Jan    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remained slightly 
elevated over the UT day and is not expected to increase till 
14Jan with the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from 
a equatorial positioned geoeffective coronal hole. Mostly Quiet 
conditions expected for 12Jan-13Jan with Unsettled conditions 
on 14Jan and possible Active periods for mid to high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
14 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Jan    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Jan    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed for some Northern
AUS/Equatorial 
reghions during local day and night vnd during local night for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Normal ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions. Notable sproadic E observed for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS IPS stations between 15UT-20UT. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days with depressed MUFS ~20% for low to mid latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 547 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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