[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 11
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 14 10:55:20 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1146 is now the only notable region on disc and remains
unchanged. Region 1140 rotated off disc and was the source of
numerous B class events. An asymmetric partial halo CME was observed
by LASCO between 0936UT-1834UT and was determined to be a backside
event. Solar wind speed gradually declined from 490km/s at 00UT
to 440km/s at 18UT. ACE data indicates an increase in the solar
wind speed (to 540km/s) and temperature at the time of this report,
likely to be the arrival of the high speed solar wind stream
from the current geoeffective coronal hole. IMF Bz ranged between
+/-5nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very
Low over the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 22122222
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 5 12112222
Hobart 5 12112222
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2212 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 12 Unsettled
15 Jan 12 Unsettled
16 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
during the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed has risen to 540km/s
at the time of this report having been at a low of 440km/s at
17UT, and is likely to be the arrival of the high speed solar
wind stream from a equatorial positioned geoeffective coronal
hole. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 2 days with
isolated Active periods for high latitudes and mostly Quiet conditions
expected for 16Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 37
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
15 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
16 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 13 January
and is current for interval 13-14 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list