[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 27 10:29:31 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Region 1164 (N28E60) produced a C1.3 flare at 0815 UT
and has been classified with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Region 1163 (N18E46) and new region 1165 (S22E43) appear stable.
Solar wind parameters were undisturbed and are expected to be
mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 5 22120-22
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 5 12112221
Canberra 2 11101111
Hobart 4 11112112
Casey(Ant) 7 33421112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 5 Quiet
01 Mar 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04, 22 UT. Enhanced to
40% 05, 17-18 UT. No data at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
02-03, 19 UT. Enhanced to 35% 07-17 UT. No Townsville
data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20% 12-15
UT at Brisbane, 20-21 UT at Norfolk Is. Enhanced to
30% 07-10 UT at all stations. Spread F observed at
Hobart 14-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 35%
10-14, 18-20 UT at Macquarie Is. and Scott Base, and
20-21 UT Casey and Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
01 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 53500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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