[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 26 10:34:55 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 96/43
COMMENT: Region 1163 (N17E60) produced two C-class flares (C1.4
at 0518 UT and C1.6 at 0544 UT). The region has been classified
as having a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New region 1164
(N28E76) produced a C1.1 at 1729 UT. A CME, observed in STEREO
A images, may have been associated with this event. A filament
and associated CME were observed in SDO/LASCO/STEREO images around
0800 UT. Neither CME is expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind
parameters were undisturbed and are expected to be mostly undisturbed
over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 11121111
Darwin 5 12122112
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 11121111
Canberra 1 01011000
Hobart 1 01111001
Casey(Ant) 7 24331121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 0100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 5 Quiet
27 Feb 5 Quiet
28 Feb 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
27 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
28 Feb Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
35% 06-15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-03, 21-22 UT. Enhanced
50% at 04 UT. Depressed to 25% 10, 20 UT. No data at
other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 45%
16-19 UT. Sporadic E observed 07-08 and 11 UT. No
Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
02-04 UT at Brisbane,r and Norfolk Is. Enhancements
to 35% 06-09 UT and depressions to 30% 10-17 UT at
all stations. Spread F observed at Hobart 12-19 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Occasional depressions to 30% 09-19 UT at Macquarie
Is. and Casey.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
27 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times. Chance of sudden ionospheric
disturbances (SWFs) on daytime sectors of circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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