[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 28 10:30:00 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Region 1164 (N27E46) produced a C4.2 flare at 0355 UT,
regions 1163 N18E33) and 1165 (S21E29) appear stable. A weak,
Earth-directed CME was observed in STEREO images around 0430
UT and may have been associated with the above flare. The slight
effects of the CME are likely to be observed in about five days.
A filament eruption and associated CME occurred near active regions
1163 and 1164 around 1048 UT, observed in LASCO C2/SDO images;
the CME is unlikely to be geo-effective. Solar wind parameters
were undisturbed and are expected to be mostly undisturbed days
one and two. The effects of a recurrent coronal hole should begin
to disturb solar wind parameters later day three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 3 21011211
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 1 11001110
Casey(Ant) 7 33221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 5 Quiet
01 Mar 5 Quiet
02 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Possible active conditions at higher latitudes later
day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25% 10,
14-16, 22-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 50% 00-06 UT, depressed to 30% 08-19 UT.
Near predicted monthly values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
09-13 UT, 16 UT. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
11-14, 23 UT at Brisbane, 10-14, 17-18 UT at Norfolk
Is., 00, 11-13 UT at Canberra and Sydney, 03-07 UT at
Perth and 00-16 UT at Hobart. Spread F observed 12-19
UT at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with occasional
depressions to 25%.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
01 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
02 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
COMMENT: Expect variable conditions. Depressions greater than
20% can be expected at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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