[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 20 10:37:54 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
only C-class activity from current active regions. The largest
for each region being a C3.4 from region 1161 at 0303UT, C8.5
from region 1162 at 0804UT and a C6.1 from region 1158 at 1643UT.
Solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day from 540km/s
at 00UT to be 400km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between
+1nT and -6nT over the UT day with notable sustained southward
periods between 0230UT-0900UT, 0930UT-1200UT and from 17UT up
until the time of this report. Solar activity is expected to
be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days with no significant change
to the current active regions size or magnetic classification
over the last 24 hours. Chance of further M-class events and
possible x-ray events greater than M5.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 21222212
Darwin 6 21222212
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 7 21222312
Canberra 5 11113211
Hobart 6 21123301
Casey(Ant) 10 3-332222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 3453 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 4 Quiet
22 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours with isolated Active periods for high latitudes
following the CME arrivals on 18Feb. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours with mostly Quiet conditions
for 21Feb-22Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 30 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 35 near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions
during local day over the last 24 hours with variable ionospheric
support for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Mostly normal HF
conditions expected for the next 3 days for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions. Possible MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ
and Antarctic regions for 20Feb and near predicted monthly values
for 21Feb-22Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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