[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 19 10:58:35 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.6 1011UT probable lower European
M1.0 1027UT possible lower European
M1.5 1303UT possible lower European
M1.0 1408UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.3 2105UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
the largest flare being a M6.6 class event at 1011UT from newly
emerged region 1162 (N19W06) along with numerous C-class and
M-class events with the next highest being M1.3 at 2104UT. This
region grew rapidly over the last 24 hours and is magnetically
classified as a beta-delta type region. Region 1158 produced
a M1.4 class event at 1303UT while region 1161 produced only
a C-class event. Region 1158 continued to decrease in sunspot
size but remains magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta class
region. Region 1161 also increased slightly in size. At 0040UT
ACE solar wind data indicated a step increase in the solar wind
velocity of ~100km/s with the arrival of the group of CME's associated
with the M and X class flares from 13Feb-15Feb. Solar wind parameters
remain elevated at the the time of this report with Vsw ~530km/s
having reached a maximum of 700km/s between 1030UT-1200UT. Bz
ranged between +25nT and -20nT between 01Ut and 09UT with some
sustained southward periods between 0200UT-0245UT and 1230UT-1500UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Moderate over the next 3 days
with further M-class events and the chance of x-ray events greater
than M5.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 27 46543222
Darwin 23 45543222
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 30 56543322
Canberra 19 35542211
Hobart 24 36542221
Casey(Ant) 48 47743332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
20 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 17 February
and is current for interval 17-19 February. Geomagnetic conditions
were Active to Major Storm levels for high latidues over the
last 24 hours with the arrival of the group of CME's from 13Feb-15Feb.
Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 19Feb and Quiet to
Unsettled conditions for 20Feb-21Feb.
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 0131UT on 18 Feb, and a weak (22nT) impulse was observed at
0546UT on 18 Feb, and a weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 0923UT
on 18 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 25 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
20 Feb 35 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 45 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and
Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day and night over the last
24 hours. Depressed MUFs observed for Antarctic regions. Increased
geomagnetic activity over the last 24 hours is expected to cause
variable ionospheric conditions with MUF depressions of 10%-30%
for mid to high latitudes with possible enhancements for mid
to low latitudes due to high solar activity from current active
regions. Tending towards mostly normal HF conditions for 20Feb-21Feb
as the effects of the geomagentic storm conditions from yesterday
abate.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 59600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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