[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 21 10:40:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb
Activity Low to Moderate Low to Moderate Low to Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class activity from regions 1161 and 1162, the largest being
a C1.7 from region 1161 at 0357UT. Solar wind speed ranged between
380km/s to 480km/s between 07UT up to the time of this report.
Bz was mostly southward for the same time period, fluctuating
between +2nT and -6nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to
Moderate over the next 3 days with the chance of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Feb : A K
Australian Region 10 21233332
Darwin 9 21223323
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 9 21223332
Canberra 9 11233331
Hobart 10 11233332
Casey(Ant) 17 3--33343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Feb 7 Quiet
22 Feb 6 Quiet
23 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over
the last 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Feb 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric support observed over the Australian/NZ
region during the last 24 hours, with enhanced MUFs for Equatorial
regions and near predicted monthly values for Northern AUS regions.
Depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions during
local day. Continued MUF depressions of 10%-20% for Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions for the next 3 days with mostly
normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions
with possible depressed periods.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 54600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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