[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 16 10:40:28 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X2.3    0156UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   103/52             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was High, with 
active region (AR)11158 producing a X2.2 class flare at 0156UT. 
LASCO C3 imagery shows an associated full halo CME from 0318UT 
onwards and an estimated shock speed from the Type II sweep of 
800km/s observed from IPS Culgoora solar observatory. ACE EPAM 
and GOES-13 data indicates an increase in proton flux from 09UT 
to the time of this report. Region 1158 was also the source of 
numerous C-class flares throughout the UT day with the largest 
being two C4.8 events at 0432UT and 1444UT. The solar wind speed 
increased gradually over the UT day from 400km/s at 00UT to a 
maximum of ~500km/s between 08UT-12UT before declining to be 
450km/s at the time of this report. Bz decreased in magnitude 
from a maximum of +18nT between 00UT-02UT to fluctuate between 
+/-3nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to increase in the 
next 24-48 hours with possible influence from the M6.6 event 
on 13Feb and certainly with yesterdays X2.2 x-ray event. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days 
with continued activity from active region 1158 and the chance 
of further x-ray events greater than M5. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32233222
      Darwin              10   32233222
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth           11   33233222
      Canberra             8   22233212
      Hobart              10   22243212
      Casey(Ant)          13   4-432222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   0000 0344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
17 Feb    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Feb    25    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled over 
the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions expected for 
the next 24 hours with possible CME effects from 13Feb M6.6 event. 
An increase to Active to Minor Storm conditions with isolated 
Major Storm conditions for high latitudes is expected on 17Feb  
with the expected arrival of yesterdays X2.2 full halo CME. 
Active conditions expected for 18Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
18 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb    45    near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    25    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    25    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over Australian region 
for the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed at IPS Niue 
station during local day and night and depressed MUFs of ~15% 
for Cocos Is. Normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS and 
Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable short wave fadeout observed 
between 0155UT and 0220UT for the east coast of Australia following 
the large X2.2 x-ray flare. Isolated depressions for Antarctic 
regions. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
with enhanced conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for
16Feb. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected from 17Feb-18Feb 
with depressed MUFs for mid to high latitudes of 10%-30% predicited 
and disturbed conditions for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    42500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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