[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 17 10:53:42 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0140UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0745UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.6    1425UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate with 
an M1.6 event from region 1158 at 1425UT and M1.1 event from 
region 1161 at 0744UT. A CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery 
from 04UT and is associated with a M1.0 class event at 0139UT. 
Region 1158 was also the source of numerous C-class events over 
the UT day. The solar wind speed decreased gradually over the 
UT day from 480km/s at 00UT to be 400km/s at the time of this 
report. Bz ranged +/-2nT for most of the UT day. Revised estimate 
for the arrival of 15Feb X2.2 full halo CME is for late in the 
UT day on the 17Feb to early hours of 18Feb. Solar activity is 
expected to be low to moderate over the next 3 days as region 
1168 remains relatively unchanged in spot size and magnetic
complexity and region 1161 exhibited steady growth. Chance of
of further x-ray events greater than M5. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21211001
      Darwin               4   21211112
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            4   21211102
      Canberra             1   11110001
      Hobart               2   11210001
      Casey(Ant)           5   3--22011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1111 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Feb    27    Active 
19 Feb    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 15 February 
and is current for interval 16-18 February. Geomagnetic conditions 
were Quiet over the last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
expected for 17Feb. Active conditions expected for 18Feb with 
the expected arrival of 15Feb X2.2 CME with possible Minor Storm 
periods for high latitudes. Unsettled conditions expected for 
19Feb with isolate Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Feb      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb    45    near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    20    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    20    depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over Australian 
region during the last 24 hours with enhanced MUFs observed during 
local night for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Normal ionospheric 
support for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions. MUFs are at 
expected to be near predicted monthly values with enhanced conditions 
for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions over the next 24 hours. Increased 
geomagnetic activity is expected from 18Feb-19Feb with depressed 
MUFs for mid to high latitudes of 10%-30% predicited and disturbed 
conditions for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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