[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 15 11:06:45 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 1726UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was moderate.
Active region (AR)11158 produced several C-class x-ray flares
(largest being C9.4 at 1258UT) and a M2.2 event at 1732UT. Expect
further C-class activity to continue from region 1158 with possible
M-class flares for the next three days. No significant flares
expected from other spot groups presently visible on the sun.
A sudden impulse was observed in the solar wind at ~15UT in which
solar wind speed increased from 300km/s to 400km/s an a notable
rise in temperature. Bz then increased in magnitude to a maximum
of -20nT between 18UT-19UT. Slight increase in solar wind density
inconsistent with the arrival of high speed solar wind stream
form the south pole positioned coronal hole which is expected
in the next 24 hours. Likely increase in solar wind velocity
due to an event on the east limb on 11Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 11111345
Darwin 13 21211444
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 14 11101445
Canberra 11 00100345
Hobart 12 01110345
Casey(Ant) 15 23-21335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0010 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
16 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
17 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions where Unsettled to Minor Storm
levels over the last 24 hours. Unsettled to Active conditions
expected for the next 3 days with possible storm periods with
the anticipated arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from
a south pole positioned geoeffective coronal hole and the M class
CME from 13Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 45 near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at expected to be near predicted monthly values
with enhanced conditions for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions.
Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Possible disturbed periods for Antarctic regions over the next
3 days due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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