[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 13 10:12:26 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 96/43 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Active region (AR)11159 produced a C-class x-ray flare
at 12/1506UT. AR 11160 produced several B-class x-ray flares.
The CMEs noted on SOHO C2/C3 imagery, occurring on the east limb,
and Type II sweep (11/2146UT) were mostly likely also associted
with this region. The CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective,
however as this region transits the visible solar disc expect
possible isolated cases of C and M class x-ray flares. Further
analysis pending a better look at its magnetic complexity as
it rotates into view. The solar wind decreased from 440 to 380
km/s over the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field
ranged between +/-4nT. Electron fluxes continue to show a declining
trend and is now below levels of concern for dielcectric discharge
on geosynchronous orbiting satellites.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Darwin 5 22212112
Learmonth 5 22112121
Canberra 2 12101110
Hobart 4 13211110
Casey(Ant) 7 3--22121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 4 Quiet
14 Feb 4 Quiet
15 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet in Australian/NZ
region. Expect this trend to continue over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 38 near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 38 near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 38 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted monthly values, expect this
trend to continue for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 366 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 60600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list