[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 12 10:47:05 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  91/36

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: No significant flares are expected from the four spot 
groups presently observed on the Sun in the next 24 hours. The 
solar wind increased from 350 to 430 km/s over the last 24 hours 
with the major portion of the rise occurring between 1800 and 
2000UT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-7nT 
with weak reconnection noted between 1700 and 2000UT. SOHO C2 
imagery showed a CME on the east limb, first noted on the 11/1312 
image. This CME is not expected to be geoeffective. Electron 
fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated, possibly 
causing spacecraft deep dielectric discharge issues. The fluxes 
are showing a declining trend in the last 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22111132
      Darwin               5   22121122
      Learmonth            6   22021132
      Canberra             3   12000122
      Hobart               4   12000232
      Casey(Ant)          12   34321133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0021 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
13 Feb     4    Quiet 
14 Feb     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet in the Australian 
region with a brief Unsettled to Active period between 1800-2100UT at 
higher latitudes due to negative IMF Bz. Expect mostly Quiet 
geomagnetic levels for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Feb    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted monthly values, expect this 
trend to continue for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    97000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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