[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 11 10:30:47 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: AR1153 has rotated off the disc and beforehand issued
numerous C and B-flares. The remaining regions 1156 and 57 are
considerably smaller so EUV and X-ray flux will decrease. They
are also less magnetically complex and less likely to issue
significant flares. Solar wind speed slowly increased from 350 to 420 km/sec
by 18UT and decreased to 380 km/sec since. This is probably the
the solar wind stream associated with the small coronal hole
rotating into geoeffective position. IMF Bz was moderately southwards,
up to -5nT from 04-10UT, and has been mildly southward near -2nT
since 17UT, both conducive to merging with the geomagnetic field.
Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated
for the fifth straight day, possibly causing spacecraft deep
dielectric discharge issues. The fluxes are showing a declining
trend in the last 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 12222112
Darwin 6 22222112
Learmonth 5 12222112
Canberra 3 02221011
Hobart 5 12321011
Casey(Ant) 15 34-43123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0001 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 5 Quiet
13 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been Quiet at mid and low latitudes
with a brief Unsettled period 06-09UT closer to high latitudes
from IMF Bz southwards. Modest solar wind speed increase from
the coronal hole has only so far pushed activity to the upper
end of Quiet. High latitudes had Unsettled to Active periods
06-12UT and 21-24UT due to extended IMF Bz southwards periods.
Expect geomagnetic conditions to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels
at mid and low latitudes over the next day with enhanced solar
wind speed from the coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The regional ionosphere was mostly near average levels
at mid latitudes. Near equatorial stations were less variable
than the last few days since the weekend geomagnetic disturbance.
MUF levels were assisted by increased EUV ionising radiation
from AR1153 which has now rotated off the disc. The two remaining
regions are not as active and ionisation will decrease. MUFs
may also be slightly suppressed on the 11-12th Feb (UT) due to
a small recurrent coronal hole increasing geomagnetic activity.
The solar wind speed increase is occurring but the magnetic field
is not responding significantly yet, possilby muting the ionospheric
response.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list