[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 10 10:17:16 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/SF 0131UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 86/29 84/26
COMMENT: AR1153 expanded and grew in complexity rapidly early
in the UT day providing an M1 class flare, a C-flare and numerous
B-flares. It has subsequently settled to continuous B-flare activity
with a raised floor of X-ray emission. AR1153 will rotate off
the disc in the next 24 hours or so but has the potential for
an isolated high C or low M flare. Activity will then reduce
to very low as the several remaining active regions AR1154-57
are stable and magnetically simple, unlikely to significantly
flare. Solar wind speed slowly decreased again from ~400km/sec
to ~350 km/sec and has settled there. A small coronal hole may
become geoeffective in 1-2 days with enhanced solar wind speed.
IMF Bz was mildly southwards 13-23UT, merging with the geomagnetic
field. Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated
for the fourth straight day, possibly causing spacecraft deep
dielectric discharge issues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111201
Darwin 4 22111211
Learmonth 3 21111201
Canberra 1 11000200
Hobart 2 11010200
Casey(Ant) 7 2-322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2301 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 5 Quiet
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet at mid and
low latitudes as solar wind speed steadily decreased to quiescent
levels. High latitudes had Unsettled to Active periods due to
extended IMF Bz southwards periods. Expect geomagnetic conditions
to remain at Quiet levels at mid and low latitudes over the next
day, in the absence of prolonged (>6 hours) Bz southwards. Possible
Unsettled conditions on 11th Feb (UT) from a small recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 35 near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 10 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The regional ionosphere was mostly near average levels
at mid latitudes. Near equatorial stations were again highly
variable with large daytime enhancements. MUF levels have been
helped by increased EUV ionising radiation from AR1153 and several
new small regions. MUFs may be slightly suppressed on the 11-12th
Feb (UT) as a small recurrent coronal hole increases geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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