[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 9 10:40:00 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              88/32
COMMENT: AR1153 has expanded, providing several B-class and one 
C-class flare. Four new active regions AR1154-57 were numbered 
and are stable and magnetically simple, unlikely to significantly 
flare. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from ~440km/sec to relatively
average ~400 km/sec over the last 24 hours as the coronal hole 
rotates out of geoeffective position. Expect further gradual 
decreases in solar wind speed over the next day. IMF Bz was mildly 
southwards 01-10UT and since 18UT, merging with the geomagnetic 
field. Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated 
for the third straight day, possibly causing spacecraft charging 
issues. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110112
      Darwin               5   22121112
      Learmonth            4   21120112
      Canberra             1   12000001
      Hobart               2   22010001
      Casey(Ant)           5   ---21122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     5    Quiet 
10 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet at mid and 
low latitudes as solar wind speed steadily decreases. High latitudes 
had Active periods near 06UT and continuing since 18UT due to 
IMF Bz southwards. Expect geomagnetic conditions to remain at 
Quiet levels at mid and low latitudes over the next 3 days, in 
the absence of prolonged (>6 hours) Bz southwards, with possible 
Unsettled conditions on 10th Feb (UT) from a weak recurrent coronal 
hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    35    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
10 Feb    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
11 Feb    10    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The regional ionosphere was mostly near average levels 
at mid latitudes, recovered from the geomagnetic disturbance, 
and enhanced at northern latitude daytime.Near equatorial stations 
were highly variable with large enhancements, still the after-effect 
of the weekend geomagnetic disturbance. The mid-latitude ionosphere 
has recovered from the geomagnetic activity induced depression. 
Recovery has been helped by increased EUV ionising radiation 
from AR1153 and several new small regions. Sporadic-E occurred 
across the region and this is likely to continue. MUFs may be 
slightly suppressed on the 10-11th Feb (UT) as a weak recurrent 
coronal hole increases geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    59200 K  Bz:   0 nT

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit have remained elevated for the third
straight day, possibly causing spacecraft charging issues.                      
                                                                                
   (Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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