[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 14 10:49:22 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.6 1738UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Active region (AR)11158 produced several C-class x-ray
flares and a M6.6 class x-ray flare at 13/1738UT with associated
1N H-alpha flare, Type II sweep (estimated speed 1000km/s), Type
IV sweep, and Tenflare. This activity is expected to impact the
Earth in approximately four days time slowed by the prevailing
solar wind speed. There is also a chance of an increase in the
10MeV proton flux later in UT day, 14 February. Learmonth Solar
Observatory at 13/0904UT reported 35 spots and a EAC Beta-Gamma
spot group classification for this active region. Expect C-class
flares to continue from this region with possible isolated cases
of M-class flares for the next three days. Furthermore, the active
region located at north 11 latitude on the east limb may also
produce significant flares as it rotates into view. No significant
flares expected from other spot groups presently visible on the
sun. The solar wind decreased from 390 to 310 km/s over the last
24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-3nT.
Electron fluxes continue to show a gradual declining trend and
are now below levels of concern for dielcectric discharge on
geosynchronous orbiting satellites.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 4 22111112
Learmonth 4 21111112
Canberra 1 10001001
Hobart 2 11201011
Casey(Ant) 5 23-21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1221 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Feb 6 Quiet
15 Feb 6 Quiet
16 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The magnetic field has been mostly Quiet in Australian/NZ
region. Expect this trend to continue over the next three days.
Note there is a possibility of an increase in geomagnetic activity
on 16 February due to flare activity on 13 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Feb 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Feb 38 near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 38 Near predicted monthly values
16 Feb 38 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted monthly values, expect this
trend to continue for the next three days. Note there is a possibility
of a weak polar cap absorption on 14 February due to High solar
activity on 13 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 84200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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