[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 11 issued 2344 UT on 24 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 25 10:44:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Region 1386(S18E64) produced a C5.2 flare at at 0839UT.
SDO images show a filament erupting at around 0900UT in the vicinity
of this region. Region 1376 produced a C4 flare at 1236UT. LASCO
and STEREO images show CMEs were associated with the flare activity.
The abovementioned CME events are not expected to be geoeffective.
More C flares are expected with a slight chance for an M_class
event for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remained low
at between 340-370Km/s. The IMF Bz ranged mostly between +/-2nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain low over the next
few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11210112
Darwin 5 21221112
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 3 11211012
Norfolk Island 3 01210112
Camden 3 10220022
Canberra 2 10210021
Hobart 4 11310111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00110000
Casey 15 23532223
Mawson 8 13221223
Davis 9 22322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 4 Quiet
26 Dec 4 Quiet
27 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 25-26 Dec Activity is expected to be mostly
Quiet over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available from Cocos Island.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
26 Dec 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
27 Dec 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions were observed today with periods
of MUF enhancements. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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