[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 11 issued 2328 UT on 23 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 24 10:28:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several
small C flares occurred the largest a C3.4. All visible active
regions have low flare probabilities. Solar wind conditions were
normal. Solar activity is expected to remain low for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 2 20111002
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 0 10100000
Hobart 1 11110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 6 24222000
Davis 10 23333212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 2100 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 5 Quiet
25 Dec 5 Quiet
26 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 25-26 Dec Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were Quiet and expected to remain so for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 125 About 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 125 About 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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