[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 11 issued 2331 UT on 22 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 23 10:31:14 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1381(S19W29) produced at C5.5 X-ray flare just after 0200UT.
This was accompanied by a multicomponent type II radio burst
seen in the Culgoora solar radio telescope with shock speeds
of between 500-1000 km/s. IPS issued geomagnetic disturbance
warning 11/25 at the time of the event. Further analysis of coronagraph
imagery not available at the time now suggest this event will
not be geoeffective; no CME is seen in LASCO imagery after this
event although a small and very slow moving ejection can be observed
in STEREO-A. No active regions currently visible have high flare
probabilities. Solar activity is expected to remain low for the
next 3 days. Solar wind conditions were normal and undisturbed
and are expected to remain as such over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 7 31221113
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 5 31111112
Norfolk Island 4 12111022
Camden 4 22111012
Canberra 3 22100012
Hobart 4 22111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 12100111
Casey 24 46532222
Mawson 17 43322253
Davis 14 343322--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 5 Quiet
24 Dec 5 Quiet
25 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 22 December
and is current for 25-26 Dec Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were Quiet. Isolated Minor Storm levels were observed
in Antarctica. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 120 About 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 115 About 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 110 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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