[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 21 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 22 10:30:51 EST 2011 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Numerous 
C-class flares occurred. Region 1376(N18W58) produced a C1.5 
flare and continues to grow. Region 1382(S18W14) produced several 
flares, the largest a C4.3. This region is largely stable. Region 
1384(N14E53) produced several flares, the largest a C2.5. This 
region has grown in the last day. None of these regions individually 
have high probabilities of producing major flares, however isolated 
M-class flares from some region are a possibility for the next 
few days. A CME were observed in LASCO imagery, however STEREO-A 
imagery suggests this is not Earth directed. Solar wind conditions 
were normal and undisturbed and is expected to remain as such 
over the next 3 days.





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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   21122223
      Darwin               9   32222223
      Townsville           7   12222223
      Learmonth            6   21022223
      Norfolk Island       4   11112122
      Camden               6   11122223
      Canberra             4   11011123
      Hobart               6   21121213    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     4   11022122
      Casey               18   35433232
      Mawson              16   33223344
      Davis               21   24345342

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2111 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec     5    Quiet
23 Dec     5    Quiet
24 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
Quiet. Isolated Minor Storm levels were observed in Antarctica. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal



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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   118

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   115    0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec   110    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec   100    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Generally enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the 
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions 
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    76800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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