[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 15 10:30:26 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             128/81             126/79

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
several C-class flares from region 1367 (now beyond the west 
limb), the largest being a C7 at 14/1459. Three CMEs, first observed 
in LASCO C2 imagery at 14/0401 and 14/1512 and in STEREO-A imagery 
at 14/1139, are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed declined 
from ~450km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz varied between -4nT and 
+3nT during the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111111
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            3   21110112
      Norfolk Island       3   12100112
      Camden               3   22111011
      Canberra             2   12100001
      Hobart               4   22111111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   21000000
      Casey               14   34431123
      Mawson              11   44221122
      Davis               13   34332232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1011 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec     3    Quiet
16 Dec     3    Quiet
17 Dec     3    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods 
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
over 15-17 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Dec   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   130    About 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec   130    About 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec   120    About 10% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs with periods of some enhancements 
were observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions 
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    69500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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