[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 13 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 14 10:30:29 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 133/87 132/86 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
three C-class flares from region 1367 (S18W89). Two CMEs first
observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 12/1848 and 13/0136 are not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be Low for
the next 3 days. Solar wind speed varied between 420km/s and
500km/s and the Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4nT over
the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22222122
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 6 21122222
Norfolk Island 5 21211122
Camden 6 22222121
Canberra 5 22211121
Hobart 6 22222122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 21133011
Casey 27 36632222
Mawson 12 33232224
Davis 14 33343232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 5 Quiet
15 Dec 5 Quiet
16 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly Quiet during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to storm
level periods were observed in Antarctica. Mostly Quiet conditions
are expected for 13-16 Dec, with possible mild coronal hole effects
on 14-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 125 About 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Dec 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Dec 130 About 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal MUFs with periods of some enhancements
were observed over the last 24 hours. Periods of sporadic E-layers
were observed at latitudes. Mostly Normal HF conditions with
MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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