[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 11 issued 2329 UT on 15 Dec 2011

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 16 10:30:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 126/79

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Dec             17 Dec             18 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   124/77             124/77             124/77

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with 
activity reduced to two C-class flares from beyond the west limb. 
A CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 15/0402, is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be low for 
the next 3 days. The solar wind speed hovered around 370km/s 
until ~18UT when there was a drop in speed to ~350km/s accompanied 
by a step up in density. The IMF Bz varied between +/-3nT during 
the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100011
      Darwin               5   22212112
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            2   21100002
      Norfolk Island       3   21100022
      Camden               2   21200011
      Canberra             1   11100001
      Hobart               2   21100001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey               12   34421122
      Mawson               4   22201111
      Davis               11   33322232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec : 
      Darwin               3   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Dec     3    Quiet
17 Dec     3    Quiet
18 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet during the last 24 hours. Some unsettled to active periods 
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Dec   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Dec   135    About 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Dec   130    About 20% above predicted monthly values
18 Dec   120    About 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs were observed over much of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions with MUF 
enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:    80500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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