[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:33:01 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Aug 31 Aug 01 Sep
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Most
flare activity was from regions beyond the east and west limbs,
the largest event being a C3.7 at 0721UT. Most regions currently
on disk appear stable. The solar wind speed has declined from
~500 km/s to ~450 km/s since 16UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated between
+/-8nT until 04UT and since 09UT has varied between +/-3nT. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with
possible C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 5 22231101
Sydney 5 22320011
Canberra 2 11220000
Gnangara 6 32221111
Casey(Ant) 6 --321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2112 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Aug 5 Quiet
31 Aug 5 Quiet
01 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours
and is expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Aug 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day,
with some nighttime depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS
regions. Periods of enhanced MUFS were observed in the Antarctic
region. Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 3
days, with occasional mild depressions in Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 97700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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