[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 30 09:33:01 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 30 AUGUST - 01 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Aug             31 Aug             01 Sep
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    98/45              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Most 
flare activity was from regions beyond the east and west limbs, 
the largest event being a C3.7 at 0721UT. Most regions currently 
on disk appear stable. The solar wind speed has declined from 
~500 km/s to ~450 km/s since 16UT. The IMF Bz fluctuated between 
+/-8nT until 04UT and since 09UT has varied between +/-3nT. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days with 
possible C-class events.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Darwin               5   22221111
      Townsville           8   22322222
      Learmonth            5   22231101
      Sydney               5   22320011
      Canberra             2   11220000
      Gnangara             6   32221111
      Casey(Ant)           6   --321112    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Aug : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2112 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Aug     5    Quiet
31 Aug     5    Quiet
01 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours 
and is expected to remain Quiet for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
31 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Aug    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day, 
with some nighttime depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS 
regions. Periods of enhanced MUFS were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 3 
days, with occasional mild depressions in Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Aug
Speed: 432 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    97700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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