[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 31 09:42:03 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Several
B and low level C-class events were observed, mostly from region
1274 (N18W59). Region 1281 (S20E43) produced a C5.5 flare at
30/2246. Regions 1281 and 1282 (N25E02) show signs of growth.
Activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days. The solar
wind speed declined gradually from ~450 km/s to ~370 km/s over
the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 13 23333233
Learmonth 3 22112010
Sydney 2 11111011
Canberra 0 00000000
Gnangara 4 21012121
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3033 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 5 Quiet
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours, with brief periods to Storm levels in the Antarctic
region. Activity and is expected to remain mostly Quiet for the
next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day,
with some nighttime depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS
regions. Periods of enhanced MUFS were observed in the Antarctic
region. Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 3
days, with occasional mild depressions in Equatorial and Northern
AUS regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 98800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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