[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 31 09:42:03 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Aug             01 Sep             02 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Several 
B and low level C-class events were observed, mostly from region 
1274 (N18W59). Region 1281 (S20E43) produced a C5.5 flare at 
30/2246. Regions 1281 and 1282 (N25E02) show signs of growth. 
Activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days. The solar 
wind speed declined gradually from ~450 km/s to ~370 km/s over 
the UT day. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain at low levels for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112111
      Darwin               3   21111111
      Townsville          13   23333233
      Learmonth            3   22112010
      Sydney               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Gnangara             4   21012121
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322121    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3033 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Aug     5    Quiet
01 Sep     5    Quiet
02 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours, with brief periods to Storm levels in the Antarctic 
region. Activity and is expected to remain mostly Quiet for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
01 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
02 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 Aug    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions were observed over the UT day, 
with some nighttime depressions in Equatorial and Northern AUS 
regions. Periods of enhanced MUFS were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next 3 
days, with occasional mild depressions in Equatorial and Northern 
AUS regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 463 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    98800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list