[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 29 09:33:41 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
New Region 1281 (S19E69) was the source of a minor B class events,
these being a B5.4 at 1400UT and B 3.4 at 2002UT. SOHO and SDO
imagery suggests an erupting filament close to the west limb
was likely to be the source of a minor Type II radio sweep at
0420UT. All regions currently on disk appear stable and did not
increase in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. Solar wind
speed ranged between 480km/s and 360km/s as of 10UT. Bz, the
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low for the next 3 days with possible C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21121121
Darwin 5 22211122
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 4 21121121
Sydney 2 11110111
Canberra 1 11010011
Gnangara 4 21121121
Casey(Ant) 8 32321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2000 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 6 Quiet
31 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Recurrent coronal hole effects appear to be minor, with Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for the 29Aug and Quiet conditions
for 30Aug-31Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for all regions and
occasional depressed periods of ~25% with the exception of Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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