[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 29 09:33:41 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Aug             30 Aug             31 Aug
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              98/45              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
New Region 1281 (S19E69) was the source of a minor B class events, 
these being a B5.4 at 1400UT and B 3.4 at 2002UT. SOHO and SDO 
imagery suggests an erupting filament close to the west limb 
was likely to be the source of a minor Type II radio sweep at 
0420UT. All regions currently on disk appear stable and did not 
increase in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. Solar wind 
speed ranged between 480km/s and 360km/s as of 10UT. Bz, the 
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very Low for the next 3 days with possible C-class events. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21121121
      Darwin               5   22211122
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            4   21121121
      Sydney               2   11110111
      Canberra             1   11010011
      Gnangara             4   21121121
      Casey(Ant)           8   32321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2000 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Aug     6    Quiet 
31 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Recurrent coronal hole effects appear to be minor, with Quiet 
to Unsettled conditions expected for the 29Aug and Quiet conditions 
for 30Aug-31Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Aug    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
30 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
31 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for all regions and 
occasional depressed periods of ~25% with the exception of Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    45700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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