[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 28 09:43:38 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1275 was the source of a B8.7 event at 0446UT. Of the
regions currently on disk, all appear stable or are slowly declining
in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed
ranged between 440km/s-360km/s over the UT day. Bz, the north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very
Low for the next 24 hours, with region 1271 expected to rotate
off the disk in this time. Very Low conditions are expected for
29Aug-30Aug with chance of a C-class event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Darwin 3 12101211
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 21112210
Sydney 2 11001111
Canberra 0 00000010
Gnangara 4 21112211
Casey(Ant) 8 33311212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 12 Unsettled
29 Aug 12 Unsettled
30 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
An increase in solar wind speed due to the arrival of a high
speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal hole is expected
in the next 24 hours with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled
and isolated Active periods for 28Aug-29Aug. Quiet conditions
expected for 30Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for Equatorial regions
during local day and depressed by ~25% for local night. Northern
Australian regions experienced depressed MUFs during local night
with IPS Niue station experienced enhanced conditions. Near predicted
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions in the latter half of the UT day. Similar
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible
increase in geomagnetic activity within this time resulting in
reduced ionospheric support for high to mid latitudes for 29Aug-30Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list