[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 28 09:43:38 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Low                Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              98/45              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1275 was the source of a B8.7 event at 0446UT. Of the 
regions currently on disk, all appear stable or are slowly declining 
in size, spot count and magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed 
ranged between 440km/s-360km/s over the UT day. Bz, the north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very 
Low for the next 24 hours, with region 1271 expected to rotate 
off the disk in this time. Very Low conditions are expected for 
29Aug-30Aug with chance of a C-class event. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111211
      Darwin               3   12101211
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   21112210
      Sydney               2   11001111
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Gnangara             4   21112211
      Casey(Ant)           8   33311212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
29 Aug    12    Unsettled 
30 Aug     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
An increase in solar wind speed due to the arrival of a high 
speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal hole is expected 
in the next 24 hours with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled 
and isolated Active periods for 28Aug-29Aug. Quiet conditions 
expected for 30Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
30 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for Equatorial regions 
during local day and depressed by ~25% for local night. Northern 
Australian regions experienced depressed MUFs during local night 
with IPS Niue station experienced enhanced conditions. Near predicted 
monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions 
for Antarctic regions in the latter half of the UT day. Similar 
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible 
increase in geomagnetic activity within this time resulting in 
reduced ionospheric support for high to mid latitudes for 29Aug-30Aug.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    52100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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