[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 27 09:31:36 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1271 decayed further and was the source of a C2.3 flare at 1313UT 
and a C1.0 event at 0334UT. Region 1279 also produced B-class 
flare activity. Solar wind speed continued to decline from 420km/s 
at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to 
be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with C-class flare activity 
possible and the slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110122
      Darwin               3   11110122
      Townsville           5   11211222
      Learmonth            2   11100022
      Sydney               1   01100011
      Canberra             0   00000011
      Gnangara             3   11110122
      Casey(Ant)           8   23310132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2001 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
29 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. An 
increase in solar wind speed due to the arrival of a high speed 
solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal hole is expected in 
the next 24-48 hours with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled 
and isolated Active periods. Unsettled conditions expected for 
29Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
29 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for Equatorial regions. 
Northern Australian regions experienced depressed MUFs during 
local night. Near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ 
regions and Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected 
over the next 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity expected 
for 28Aug-29Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support for 
high to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    41800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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