[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 27 09:31:36 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1271 decayed further and was the source of a C2.3 flare at 1313UT
and a C1.0 event at 0334UT. Region 1279 also produced B-class
flare activity. Solar wind speed continued to decline from 420km/s
at 00UT to be ~400km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with C-class flare activity
possible and the slight chance of an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11110122
Darwin 3 11110122
Townsville 5 11211222
Learmonth 2 11100022
Sydney 1 01100011
Canberra 0 00000011
Gnangara 3 11110122
Casey(Ant) 8 23310132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2001 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
29 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. An
increase in solar wind speed due to the arrival of a high speed
solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal hole is expected in
the next 24-48 hours with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled
and isolated Active periods. Unsettled conditions expected for
29Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for Equatorial regions.
Northern Australian regions experienced depressed MUFs during
local night. Near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected
over the next 24 hours. Increased geomagnetic activity expected
for 28Aug-29Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support for
high to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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