[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 26 09:45:40 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1271 (N18,W55) decayed further over the last 24 hours 
and was the source of a B4.8 flare at 0811UT and a B8.9 at 2203UT. 
Newly emerged regions were also the source of B-class activity 
with region 1277 (N17,E66) producing a B9.5 flare at 0702UT and 
region 1279 (N13,E75) the source of a B9.6 flare at 1652UT. Solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 480km/s at 00UT to be ~420km/s 
at the time of this report. Bz, the north south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-4nT over 
the UT day with some some prolonged southward periods in the 
latter half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low 
to Very Low for the next 3 days with C-class flare activity possible 
and the slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112221
      Darwin               5   21112222
      Townsville           8   12223322
      Learmonth            4   21112220
      Sydney               5   -1112321
      Canberra             3   10002221
      Gnangara             6   21112231
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Darwin              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3101 2202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug     5    Quiet 
27 Aug    12    Unsettled 
28 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased 
geomagnetic activity is expected from 27Aug due to anticipated 
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal 
hole with conditions ranging from Quiet to Unsettled and isolated 
Active periods for 27Aug-28Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor
28 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
28 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of 10%-30% observed over Equatorial regions 
during local day and night. Northern Australian regions also 
experienced depressed MUFs during local day. Near predicted monthly 
values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for 
Antarctic regions. Mild MUF depressions are expected at times 
over the next 24 hours for Northern Australian to Equatorial 
regions and near predicted monthly values expected for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity expected on
27Aug-28Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support for high
to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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