[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:32:31 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1271 was the source of the largest event, being a C1.1 flare 
at 1633UT. Region 1271 remained relatively unchanged over the 
last 24 hours with no significant change in other regions currently 
on disk. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from 580km/s at 
00UT to be 480km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to 
be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with further C-class flare 
activity possible from region 1271 and the slight chance of isolated 
M-class flare. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112202
      Darwin               5   31102202
      Townsville           7   22212322
      Learmonth            6   32112202
      Sydney               4   21112202
      Canberra             2   10002201
      Gnangara             6   32112202
      Casey(Ant)           8   33222212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara           180   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3011 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     5    Quiet 
26 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours. 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased 
geomagnetic activity is expected from 26Aug due to anticipated 
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream of a recurrent coronal 
hole with conditions ranging from Quiet to Active for 26Aug-27Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours 
for the Australian/NZ region. Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed 
over Equatorial regions during local day and night. Northern 
Australian regions also experienced depressed MUFs during local 
day and night. IPS Niue station an exception with enhanced MUFs 
during local night. Near predicted monthly values for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions with slightly enhanced conditions during local 
night and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Mild MUF 
depressions are expected at times over the next 3 days for Northern 
Australian to Equatorial regions and near predicted monthly values 
expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Increased geomagnetic activity 
expected on 26Aug-27Aug, resulting in reduced ionospheric support 
for high to mid latitudes for 27Aug. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   136000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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