[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:36:32 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1271 was the source of the largest event, being a B5.7 
flare at 0125UT. Region 1271 decayed in the last 24 hours while 
region 1272 also showed signs of decline. Solar wind speed was 
350km/s between 00UT-08UT and then gradually increased to be 
550km/s at the time of this report. The period of increase in 
solar wind speed was accompanied by a decline in solar wind density, 
indicating possible coronal hole effects. Bz, the north south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 
+/-5nT for the majority of the UT day. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low to Very Low for the next 3 days with further C-class 
flare activity possible from region 1271 and the slight chance 
of isolated M-class flare. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1263 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 24 Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21222332
      Darwin               7   21222232
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            8   21222332
      Sydney               7   11222322
      Canberra             4   10111222
      Gnangara             8   21221332
      Casey(Ant)           9   223-----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin              44   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2020 1233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Aug     5    Quiet 
26 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next 24 hours with mostly Quiet conditions for 25Aug. Increased 
geomagnetic activity is expected from 26Aug due to anticipated 
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream for a recurrent geoeffective
coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs of ~20% observed over Equatorial regions 
during local day. Northern Australian regions experienced depressed 
MUFs during local day and night. Near predicted monthly values 
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Mild MUF depressions are expected at times over the 
next 3 days for Northern Australia to Equatorial regions and 
near predicted monthly values expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Increased geomagnetic activity on 26Aug possible, resulting in 
reduced ionospheric support for high to mid latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    77600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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