[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 23 09:50:55 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
1271 produced a long duration C1.1 flare at 1604UT as well as
numerous B-class events. Region 1271 displayed renewed growth
in area, spot-count and magnetic complexity over the last 24
hours. Region 1274 also produced a notable B9.7 class flare at
0949UT. Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next
few days with the small chance of isolated M-class flare activity
from region 1271. Solar wind speeds declined slightly from ~400km/s
between 00UT-15UT to be 350km/s at the time of this report. The
slightly elevated solar wind velocity was due to a weak coronal
hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected remain
less than 400km/s for the next 3 days. Bz, the north south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-6nT over
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very Low
for the next 3 days.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1263 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 24 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22210222
Darwin 5 21211222
Learmonth 5 22210221
Sydney 5 21210222
Canberra 3 11200122
Gnangara 6 21211231
Casey(Ant) 10 33420131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 15 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1000 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug 5 Quiet
25 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours with Unsettled periods for high latitudes in the first
half of the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for 23Aug and Quiet conditions for 24Aug-25Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs of ~20% observed over Equatorial
and Northern Australian regions during local day and night. Near
predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mild MUF depressions possible
over the next 24 hours for Northern Australian to Equatorial
regions with otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
Normal ionospheric support expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Improved HF conditions for low latitudes expected for 24Aug-25Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 96800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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