[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 23 09:50:55 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             112/63             112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1271 produced a long duration C1.1 flare at 1604UT as well as 
numerous B-class events. Region 1271 displayed renewed growth 
in area, spot-count and magnetic complexity over the last 24 
hours. Region 1274 also produced a notable B9.7 class flare at 
0949UT. Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next 
few days with the small chance of isolated M-class flare activity 
from region 1271. Solar wind speeds declined slightly from ~400km/s 
between 00UT-15UT to be 350km/s at the time of this report. The 
slightly elevated solar wind velocity was due to a weak coronal 
hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected remain 
less than 400km/s for the next 3 days. Bz, the north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-6nT over 
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Very Low 
for the next 3 days. 


Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1263 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 24 Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22210222
      Darwin               5   21211222
      Learmonth            5   22210221
      Sydney               5   21210222
      Canberra             3   11200122
      Gnangara             6   21211231
      Casey(Ant)          10   33420131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Darwin              15   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Aug     5    Quiet 
25 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours with Unsettled periods for high latitudes in the first 
half of the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected 
for 23Aug and Quiet conditions for 24Aug-25Aug. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs of ~20% observed over Equatorial 
and Northern Australian regions during local day and night. Near 
predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed 
conditions for Antarctic regions. Mild MUF depressions possible 
over the next 24 hours for Northern Australian to Equatorial 
regions with otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.  
Normal ionospheric support expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Improved HF conditions for low latitudes expected for 24Aug-25Aug. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    96800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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