[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 11

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 22 09:51:05 EST 2011


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Aug             23 Aug             24 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   103/52             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: A C1 flare was observed from region 1272 otherwise solar 
activity was at Very Low levels during 21 August. Further C-class 
flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small 
chance of isolated M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds 
increased slightly over the past 24 hours from below 350 km/s 
up to approximately 450 km/s. This increase may be the result 
of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds may increase 
further during 22 August under the influence of this coronal 
hole wind stream. Solar wind speeds are then expected to decline 
slowly during 23-24 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Darwin               2   11101012
      Townsville           5   12212121
      Learmonth            1   01000011
      Sydney               1   11100001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Gnangara             2   11111011
      Casey(Ant)           6   23311011    

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug : 
      Darwin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1100 2123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Aug    10    Unsettled to quiet with the chance of isolated 
                Active periods.
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly Unsettled 
to Quiet levels for 22 August with the chance of a small increase 
in activity early in the UT day due to a coronal hole solar wind 
stream. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected for 23-24 
August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at low-equatorial latitudes 
at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are expected 
at times over the next 24 hours primarily for low-equatorial 
latitudes otherwise MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E conditions 
were observed during the past 24 hours which may have degraded 
HF conditions at times. Further isolated periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 24 hours which may 
result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Aug    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Aug    55    Mostly near predicted monthly values with 10-20% 
                depressions for far northern Australian regions.
23 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed over northern Australian 
regions at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions are 
expected at times over the next 24 hours primarily for far northern 
Australian to equatorial regions otherwise MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values. Some periods of Spread-F 
and Sporadic-E conditions were observed during the past 24 hours 
which may have degraded HF conditions at times. Further isolated 
periods of Spread-F and Sporadic-E are expected over the next 
24 hours which may result in degraded HF conditions at times.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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